After starting Q3 at a robust pace (24 sales in 1st half of Q3), Pebble’s market sustained that momentum to finish on a strong note with 39 sales (up 5% from 2Q17). Worth noting that 39 sales matched the highest in sales volume for any Q3 since ’00.
Encouraging to see a rebound in activity for the mid-to-upper price brackets with 5 sales in the $3-$4M range (twice the average of Q3 totals); 3 sales in the $4-6M range (up 33% average Q3 totals) and 2 sales in the $6M-$8M range (up 60% from average Q3 totals).
The top of the market (above $8M) remains sluggish with just 1 closed escrow ($10M, off-market) and 1 sale pending – compared to last year, which had 5 sales by through Q3.
The $1M-$1.5M and $1.5M-$2M price brackets continue to be the most liquid ranges in Pebble’s market with the shortest average days on market (95 & 94 days respectively) and tightest discounting (-5% and -6% sale off list prices respectively) – keeping the needle pointed toward a seller’s market for those brackets.
Inventory levels have buoyed just above the 80 listing marker for the 2nd quarter in a row, while continuing to be top-heavy with 36% of listings above $5M.
The MPCC area continues to lead the way with the most activity (23 sales, down 8% from Q2), while Central Pebble picked up (10 sales, up 30% from Q2) and the Upper Forest leveled off (5 sales, matching Q2).
Carmel gained momentum in Q3 with 50 sales (45 on-market/5 off-market), up 4% from Q2 and notably higher than the seasonally adjusted average of 41 sales.
The Golden Rectangle led all areas in activity with 17 sales – the most in a Q3 since ’05. Compared to their respective Q3 averages, Carmel Point (up 23%), Hatton Fields (up 48%) and Northwest Carmel (up 23%) boasted strong quarters while the Northeast (down 37%) and Southeast (down 60%) areas slowed.
The uptick in activity has tightened inventory levels across the board (down 12%) since their peak of 96 actively listed, which crested amidst Car Week in late August.
The $3M-$4M price bracket had a record setting Q3 with 8 sales (6 in Golden Rectangle) while the $6-$8M range went silent for the second quarter in a row.
Worth noting that the entry ticket for Carmel continues to hover above the $1M threshold as activity below that marker reached its slowest pace in 10 years.
Activity in the Highlands held steady in Q3 (6 sales), matching Q2’s totals, while Carmel Meadows slowed with zero sales – mostly due to a lack of supply (1 active listing throughout Q3).
With the majority of Q3’s sales in the lower price brackets(<$4M), the total dollar amount for Q3 dropped from Q2 (down $8.45M) despite similar sales volumes.
As sales at the top of the market ($4M+) stalled in Q3, a glut in inventory has developed – representing over half of active listings. Also worth noting that inventory levels have risen from Q2 (up 29%), almost matching 2016’s peak of 32 actively listed (30 in Q3).
The $2.5-$3M price bracket was a bright spot in the Highlands market, hosting the most activity for a Q3 in this price bracket since ’01.
Although sales have been slow in the upper ranges, we’ve seen an uptick in interest as of late and sense there might be a shift in direction for the Highlands going into Q4.
Quail Lodge/ Preserve
Quail and the Preserve had a slow 3Q with just 1 closed escrow, which was 7036 Valley Greens Circle that closed at $2.3M.
Inventory remains tight in Quail Lodge and the Meadows with just two condos and one house on River Place actively listed. The Preserve continues to see nice activity with 2 new sales this quarter, both set to close in the next 3 months.
Somewhat surprisingly, there are no actively listed properties in Quail Meadows – a clear sign of strong demand in this area as all of the supply is being absorbed.
Leading the pack is our listing at 5493 Oak Trail listed at $5,850,000 which is set to close in 1Q2018.